OpenAI Revenue Revised Down $20 Billion, Misses $70B Target

Overview

OpenAI has reportedly revised its financial projections downward, telling investors that its annualized revenue is approximately $20 billion lower than previously stated. The company now indicates that its revenue is "approaching $50 billion," a significant adjustment from earlier claims that the figure was nearing $70 billion.

This revision comes just over a week after it was widely reported that OpenAI’s annualized revenue was on track to match the Anthropic run rate. The discrepancy highlights ongoing scrutiny regarding how major AI labs calculate their financial health and the massive capital investments being made on their behalf.

Revenue Discrepancies and Calculations

The latest figures were disclosed in a report by the Financial Times, which states that OpenAI has directly informed its investor base of the reduced revenue outlook. The previous estimate of $70 billion was not derived from a direct audit of OpenAI’s own financial records, but rather from attempts by investors to create a comparative metric against Anthropic.

"The previous figure of $70 billion was based on information that had previously been shared with investors by OpenAI," the Financial Times noted, adding that this data was "devised via attempts by OpenAI’s own investors to produce a direct comparison with Anthropic’s annualised revenues."

This indirect method of estimation has led to confusion and potential inflation of public expectations. A critical factor in the divergence between the two companies' reported numbers is the fundamental difference in how they compute annualized revenue.

Cloud Partner Sales vs. Direct Revenue

Anthropic includes sales generated through its cloud partners in its annualized revenue calculation. This approach allows third-party distribution deals to count toward the top-line figure, potentially inflating the perceived scale of immediate, direct consumer or enterprise spending.

OpenAI, conversely, does not include cloud partner sales in its revenue metrics. By excluding these channels, OpenAI’s figures reflect a more conservative, direct-to-business or direct-to-consumer view of its financial performance. This methodological difference means that while the two companies may appear competitive on paper when using broad estimates, their actual operational revenues may differ substantially.

Context of Previous Projections

The initial hype surrounding a potential $70 billion run rate was fueled by the broader narrative of the "AI arms race." As OpenAI and Anthropic compete for talent, infrastructure, and market dominance, every financial milestone is scrutinized intensely by the tech community and Wall Street.

When the $70 billion figure circulated, it positioned OpenAI as nearly matching Anthropic’s reported run rate. This parity would have signaled a maturation of the generative AI industry comparable to the early days of major software or hardware platforms. The correction to $50 billion, while still a massive figure, tempers that specific comparison and forces a re-evaluation of OpenAI’s immediate profitability relative to its rivals.

TechCrunch reached out to OpenAI for comment regarding the revised figures, but as of publication, no official statement was provided. The silence underscores the sensitive nature of the company’s financial disclosures during this pre-IPO period.

Financial Pressures and Future Outlook

The issue of revenue transparency is particularly acute for OpenAI as it attempts to justify the gargantuan investments flowing into the company. During a funding round in March 2025 alone, OpenAI raised $122 billion, one of the largest private equity raises in history. Such a valuation demands extraordinary returns and rapid scaling.

Leaked financial documents from 2025 revealed that the company had generated approximately $13 billion in revenue but spent significantly more than it earned. This burn rate has raised questions about the path to profitability and the sustainability of current growth trajectories.

Impact on IPO Plans

The revision of revenue estimates may also influence OpenAI’s planned Initial Public Offering (IPO). The company had previously hinted at going public as early as this year, but those plans have already been delayed.

According to recent reports, the IPO has been pushed back to early 2027. While the exact reasons for the delay are multifaceted, including regulatory uncertainties and market conditions, the need to recalibrate revenue expectations likely plays a role. A lower-than-anticipated run rate can complicate the narrative presented to public market investors, who often seek clear paths to profit alongside growth.

Broader Industry Implications

This episode serves as a case study in the opacity of the fast-moving AI sector. With companies like OpenAI and Anthropic operating with varying degrees of financial transparency, investors and analysts must navigate a landscape where "annualized revenue" can mean different things depending on who is calculating it.

The discrepancy between the $70 billion projection and the $50 billion reality illustrates the challenges of benchmarking against peers who use non-standard accounting methods. As the industry matures, there will likely be increased pressure for standardized financial reporting to allow for fair comparisons between major AI labs.

For now, stakeholders will be watching closely to see how OpenAI addresses the gap between its marketing narratives and its audited financials. The coming months, leading up to the potential 2027 IPO, will be critical in determining whether the company can close this perception gap while continuing to invest heavily in research and infrastructure.

The focus remains on whether OpenAI can demonstrate that its direct revenue model, despite being lower than the inflated estimates, represents a more sustainable and honest foundation for its future valuation.